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A computational model for prediction of ferritin and haemoglobin levels in blood donors

Item Type:Article
Title:A computational model for prediction of ferritin and haemoglobin levels in blood donors
Creators Name:Paalvast, Y. and Moazzen, S. and Sweegers, M. and Hogema, B. and Janssen, M. and van den Hurk, K.
Abstract:Blood donors are at risk of iron deficiency anaemia. While this risk is decreased through ferritin-based deferral, ideally ferritin monitoring should also aid in optimising donation frequencies. We extended an existing model of haemoglobin (Hb) synthesis with iron homeostasis and validated the model on a cohort of 300 new donors whose ferritin levels were measured from stored blood samples collected over a 2-year period. We then used the donor's gender, body weight, height, and baseline Hb and ferritin levels to predict subsequent Hb and ferritin levels. The prediction error was within measurement variability in 88% of Hb level predictions and 64% of ferritin level predictions. A sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that baseline ferritin level was the most important in predicting future ferritin levels. Finally, we used the model to calculate the annual donation frequency at which donors would keep their ferritin level >15 ng/ml when measured after donating for 2 years. The mean annual donation frequency would then be 1.9 for women and 4.1 for men. The computational model, requiring baseline values only, can predict future Hb and ferritin levels remarkably well. This enables determination of optimal donation frequencies for individual donors at the start of their donation career.
Keywords:Blood Donors, Ferritin, Prediction Model
Source:British Journal of Haematology
Page Range:143-152
Date:October 2022
Official Publication:https://doi.org/10.1111/bjh.18367
PubMed:View item in PubMed

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