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Predictors of major atrial fibrillation endpoints in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute HCMR

Item Type:Article
Title:Predictors of major atrial fibrillation endpoints in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute HCMR
Creators Name:Kramer, C.M. and DiMarco, J.P. and Kolm, P. and Ho, C.Y. and Desai, M.Y. and Kwong, R.Y. and Dolman, S.F. and Geller, N. and Kim, D.Y. and Maron, M.S. and Appelbaum, E. and Jerosch-Herold, M. and Friedrich, M.G. and Schulz-Menger, J. and Piechnik, S.K. and Mahmod, M. and Jacoby, D. and White, J. and Chiribiri, A. and Helms, A. and Choudhury, L. and Michels, M. and Bradlow, W. and Salerno, M. and Dawson, D.K. and Weinsaft, J.W. and Berry, C. and Nagueh, S.F. and Buccarelli-Ducci, C. and Anjali, O. and Casadei, B. and Watkins, H. and Weintraub, W.S. and Neubauer, S.
Abstract:OBJECTIVES: This study sought to identify predictors of major clinically important atrial fibrillation endpoints in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common morbidity associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The HCMR (Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Registry) trial is a prospective natural history study of 2,755 patients with HCM with comprehensive phenotyping. METHODS: All patients received yearly telephone follow-up. Major AF endpoints were defined as requiring electrical cardioversion, catheter ablation, hospitalization for >24 h, or clinical decisions to accept permanent AF. Penalized regression via elastic-net methodology identified the most important predictors of major AF endpoints from 46 variables. This was applied to 10 datasets, and the variables were ranked. Predictors that appeared in all 10 sets were then used in a Cox model for competing risks and analyzed as time to first event. RESULTS: Data from 2,631 (95.5%) patients were available for analysis after exclusions. A total of 127 major AF endpoints events occurred in 96 patients over 33.3 ± 12.4 months. In the final model, age, body mass index (BMI), left atrial (LA) volume index, LA contractile percent (active contraction), moderate or severe mitral regurgitation (MR), and history of arrhythmia the most important. BMI, LA volume index, and LA contractile percent were age-dependent. Obesity was a stronger risk factor in younger patients. Increased LA volume, reduced LA contractile percent, and moderate or severe MR put middle-aged and older adult patients at increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: The major predictors of major AF endpoints in HCM include older age, high BMI, moderate or severe MR, history of arrhythmia, increased LA volume, and reduced LA contractile percent. Prospective testing of a risk score based on these parameters may be warranted.
Keywords:Atrial Fibrillation, Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy, Left Atrium, MRI
Source:JACC: Clinical Electrophysiology
Page Range:1376-1386
Date:November 2021
Additional Information:Copyright © 2021 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Official Publication:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacep.2021.04.004
External Fulltext:View full text on PubMed Central
PubMed:View item in PubMed

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